Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 13.106513 15.008793 17.062032 19.439367 22.112461 25.021466 28.423086
2025-02-16 10.217701 12.771994 15.747223 19.454255 23.933710 29.155157 35.684876
2025-02-23 8.705192 11.515030 14.951747 19.437405 25.107403 32.003116 40.987771
2025-03-02 7.664885 10.662191 14.489953 19.693552 26.533268 35.160948 46.803036
2025-03-09 6.790526 9.874884 13.966007 19.728370 27.562796 37.759657 51.936099
2025-03-16 5.999721 9.093918 13.345106 19.531885 28.207518 39.825460 56.419379
2025-03-23 5.461142 8.595824 13.042277 19.706606 29.314168 42.510258 61.813789
2025-03-30 5.133568 8.362589 13.077322 20.333857 31.057937 46.124095 68.635259
2025-04-06 4.635100 7.816352 12.598142 20.155421 31.602277 48.046524 73.133985
2025-04-13 4.002548 6.995319 11.630229 19.156677 30.846088 48.022391 74.783009
2025-04-20 3.775399 6.800974 11.606193 19.588621 32.248108 51.202026 81.249779
2025-04-27 3.558455 6.600700 11.551244 19.956624 33.555969 54.283937 87.690351
2025-05-04 3.247202 6.217225 11.178496 19.801716 34.054437 56.194744 92.506204
2025-05-11 2.945418 5.821320 10.752634 19.525568 34.334945 57.774124 96.880320
2025-05-18 2.737706 5.572758 10.553119 19.605310 35.184690 60.267313 102.773494
2025-05-25 2.572979 5.387239 10.446413 19.830787 36.279854 63.191768 109.470430
2025-06-01 2.396534 5.161672 10.248398 19.876734 37.061882 65.627770 115.463479
2025-06-08 2.202082 4.881484 9.927186 19.675306 37.394554 67.320998 120.288318
2025-06-15 2.075371 4.724214 9.820595 19.852399 38.392517 70.160771 127.125590
2025-06-22 2.014456 4.696133 9.955871 20.483424 40.229145 74.499173 136.662499
2025-06-29 1.862730 4.462243 9.673703 20.303937 40.577796 76.275804 141.873858
2025-07-06 1.635125 4.041472 8.988170 19.298479 39.338426 75.205457 142.084857
2025-07-13 1.575763 3.986966 9.037185 19.733327 40.816793 79.008632 150.992978